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Final Technical Report September 1996-1999
(East African Tsetse and Trypanosomiasis Research and Reclamation Organization, 1996/1999) East African Tsetse and Trypanosomiasis Research and Reclamation Organization
The first was achieved for The Gambia and Kenya study sites, within the limits of the data sets available (Section 5). First the accuracy of satellite data (RS) estimates of climatic conditions were compared with those obtained by spatial interpolation (SI) of point records from meteorological station sites. Across Africa SI was more accurate for estimating temperature, equally accurate for vapors pressure deficit and less accurate for rainfall (Section 1). Secondly the satellite data were related to the tsetse field data. Land Surface Temperature (LST) measures were the best predictors of monthly fly mortality rates in both Gambia and Kenya. Tsetse population models using this relationship explained >90% of the variance of fly numbers, as recorded by the trap catches. The transmission models developed within the project were able to explain> 50% of the variance in monthly infection prevalence in cattle at each site, a remarkably good figure given the simplifying assumptions that had to be made in the models. Extension of the tsetse models to larger areas seems feasible, and such models can form the basis for modelling intervention at a number of scales