A Simple Procedure for Drought Prediction Over the "Water Year" for Agricultural and Hydrological Schedules in West Kenya

Abstract

Drought is one of most devastating environmental aspects. There is extensive literature on agricultural (Nieuwolt, 1974.1978; Baker. 1977). hydrological (Woodhead, 1968. 1970; Woodhead and Waweru, 1970) and irrigational (pereira, 1957, aspects of drought in East Africa but none has been attributed to solar cycles (Bhalme and Mooley. 1979). Ability to predict the future occurrence of drought would go a long way towards facilitating water management In attempting to define drought, the basic aspects should involve an economic dimension and identification of the water source. It then becomes necessary to define a period of its critical availability for this purpose (Heathcote, 1969) or the prediction becomes of no apparent use.