Pentad (5-Day) Rainfall Normals And Their Statistical Modeling

Abstract

Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture culture alwalys mentions flood and drought as major problems ,around the world (Baradas, 1983). Agriculturists, meteorologists and hydrologists (Of hydrometeologilsts) have great 'interest in short range (upto 48 hours), medium range (3 days to 2 weeks) and long range (at least 30 days) forecasts of rainfall. With the present state of knowledge even short range forecasting in the is far from perfect (Baradals, 1983). The mo,st accurate long range forecast, which is unkindly in the immediate future, will only tell us 'the time when there with be ,enough, a 'shortage or an excess, and how much of each. In simple terms, sufficiency or excess of water ,is the basic problem. So hr the 80lutiO'ns provided have been techniques to predict the extent and time of winter insufficiency or excess (flood) and how to gamble using such 'information.