An Assessment of Small Ruminant Production, Marketing, and Investment Options in Somaliland: A System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

A complex set of factors affect the production and sale of livestock in Somaliland, including feed supply, diseases, and demand, among others. This study constructs a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate the impacts of baseline dynamics and alternative value chain interventions to address inherent constraints. Findings indicate that Somaliland incurs high economic losses due to occasional animal export bans associated with Rift valley fever (RVF) outbreaks (up to 12% of GDP) and lack of pasture during droughts, given the lack of effort by producers to balance their flock sizes with stocking capacity. Under the baseline conditions, prospects for growth of the small ruminants’ sector are poor as the stocking rate is centered and stagnated at about 2.54 million TLUs, and a decline is projected in the long run. In contrast, the adoption of optimization of animal herd sizes in order to balance feed demand with supply could (ceteris-paribus) enhance productivity, boosting exports and domestic supply of slaughter animals and also lead to improved rangeland conditions, ultimately reversing the projected long-run erosion of stocking capacity.